Untying the Knot Starting with Extensive Exchanges
Want Daily Editorial, January 13, 2024
The dust has settled after the 2024 elections, and President-Elect Lai Ching-te 's "minority government" and "minority parliament" structure ushered in a new chapter for the democratic politics of the Republic of China. The loss of the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) majority government position after eight years delays cross-strait relations’ slide towards war and decline. More importantly, with the reestablished strategic understanding between the United States and China on Taiwan independence and the United States hinted for the first time that it does not oppose the "peaceful reunification" of both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Whether Mr. Lai follows President Tsai Ing-wen’s course or opens a new "pragmatic Taiwan independence route," the restoration of extensive cross-strait exchanges is most advantageous for Taiwan.
Opposition Checks and Balances, Joint Management by U.S. and China
In the final moments before the election, the Kuomintang (KMT), DPP, and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) demonstrated their respective popularity. However, it was widely believed that Mr. Lai had the highest probability of winning, shifting the focus to the post-election management of risks in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. National Security Council held an online briefing, reiterating non-support for Taiwan independence, and expressed that the United States does not take a position on the final outcome of a peaceful resolution to solve differences across the Taiwan Strait in a rare statement, implying non-opposition to peaceful reunification. Eurasia Group, a top global political consulting firm, pointed out that Mr. Lai is considered a "dangerous friend to the United States," alongside figures like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. Major international media outlets have identified the two main focuses of the 2024 elections as Taiwan’s democracy and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
The war risk associated with Mr. Lai has become a global "case study" and a driving force for both the United States and China to set aside disputes, discard past grievances, and reopen substantial dialogues to communicate and reach agreements on Taiwan Strait risks. Therefore, in the week leading up to the election, diplomatic, military, business, law enforcement, and climate-related dialogues between the United States and China almost simultaneously resumed. The intense political actions by both the United States and China convey two important messages:
First, results of Taiwan's 2024 elections will not alter the communication channels between the United States and China. Even if Mr. Lai wins, any warning actions taken by mainland China are likely to be symbolic. Therefore, both sides have astutely concluded formal dialogues across diplomatic, military, business, law enforcement, and climate channels before the Taiwan election, indicating that the United States and China are well-prepared to prevent short-term turbulence in cross-strait relations from impacting the broader U.S.-China relationship.
Second, the U.S.’ and China’s core diplomatic and military personnel are likely to have prepared strategies for Mr. Lai's future actions. Meetings such as Liu Jianchao with Blinken and high-level meetings with the White House are widely interpreted as strategic communications on how to handle Mr. Lai's victory. The U.S. National Security Council's reiterated stance against Taiwan independence and the visit of a U.S. delegation to Taiwan are believed to be efforts by Washington to "control" Mr. Lai's actions. For instance, the recent U.S. defense working group meeting in Washington likely focused on the crucial topic of managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
With Mr. Lai in power, there is internal counterbalance in parliament from opposition parties and external consensus from the United States and China to control Taiwan independence. The view of cross-strait relations need not be overly pessimistic. First, both the DPP itself and the United States will put pressure on reevaluating the DPP’s "Taiwan independence party charter" and incorporate adherence to the constitutional framework of the Republic of China into a new DPP resolution. Second, as mainland China’s direction towards peaceful reunification and their policy of placing their hopes on the Taiwanese people remains unchanged. With this in mind, cross-strait exchange policies, openness, and integration are likely to continue. At the same time, as a minority government, Mr. Lai must consider that after the re-establishment of the tacit understanding between the United States and China to jointly manage Taiwan independence, only through open exchanges between the people on both sides of the strait can the tensions of the past eight years be alleviated. Otherwise, it risks becoming another presidency akin to Chen Shui-bian's.
Setting Aside Disputes to Improve Relations
Whether it be the current Tsai administration or incoming Lai administration, both should maintain an open door for cross-strait exchanges. The promises made by the DPP before the elections, such as including mainland Chinese students in health insurance, lifting the ban on mainland tourist groups, and welcoming unlimited mainland tourists and independent travelers to Taiwan, should be honored promptly. Additionally, the restrictions imposed by the DPP administration during the election period on the mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau media visiting Taiwan should be lifted now that elections are over. Allowing mainland Chinese media, influencers, and tourists into Taiwan will help mainland Chinese better understand a Taiwanese society that preserves Chinese culture and is kind and charming, ultimately moving both sides further away from the prospect of war.
Beyond opening channels for people-to-people exchanges, during the transition from President Tsai to Mr. Lai, practical decisions need to be made on the issue of cross-strait economic openness. This involves seriously addressing the results of mainland China’s investigation into Taiwan's trade barriers, making pragmatic improvements to the unequal trade structure, and reconsidering tariffs on mainland Chinese goods. What the mainland has currently suspended is only the tariff exemption for some items on the early harvest list of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), not the termination of the ECFA itself. The DPP must find room for maneuver within the framework, ensuring the security of Taiwan's core industries while allowing grassroots economic integration between the two sides.
The formula for maintaining peace and stability across the strait in the next four years involves joint management by China and the United States, with opposition parties acting as a check. This is also a political reality that the DPP and Mr. Lai cannot ignore. Mr. Lai must promote broader people-to-people, cultural, and economic exchanges across the strait and set aside political disputes, and both Beijing and Washington should encourage him to do so.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20240113004091-262102